2011年7月25日 星期一

I attempted to explain last week

I'll continue to devote considerable analytical attention to the unfolding European debt crisis. These debt markets are in the midst of a problematic crisis of confidence, in a marketplace that again elicited an aggressive policy response. Here at home, and despite obvious risks and politicians content to play with fire, the market is more than fine with Treasurys. The thesis remains that the sovereign debt crisis that erupted in Greece - and moved to consume Ireland and Portugal before arriving at the door of Spain and Italy - will eventually engulf our government debt market as well.

As I attempted to explain last week, sovereign debt crises have important differences to those impacting private-sector credit instruments. For one, sovereign debt problems tend to manifest


subsequent to major private debt boom and bust cycles. They will follow serious expansions in both public sector debt and the government's assumption of private-sector risks and obligations. And, sovereign debt crisis will likely develop as the markets begin questioning the future efficacy of fiscal and monetary policy measures, stimulus employed with increasing fervor to battle persistent private sector debt and economic woes.

It is the nature of sovereign crises to unfold during a period of economic fragility and general market aversion to private sector debt. In such a backdrop, government credit growth will likely comprise a large - and critical - part of total system credit expansion. So the system overall - the real economy and the financial sphere - finds itself extraordinarily susceptible to waning market demand for government credit. Or, stated differently, the stakes involved in a crisis of confidence in sovereign debt are extremely high - and we should fully expect policymakers to respond accordingly. Both the public's and markets' expectations for policymaking will be at inflated - and susceptible - levels.ed by increasing shipments of heat glassbottles substrates, Inevitably,Max brings to our board an extensive background in rubberhoses engineering confidence game dynamics will hold sway, with policy makers increasingly held hostage to the demands of the markets.

After seeing the marketplace challenge their "manhood", European ministers resorted to some "shock and awe" for the latest Greek debt summit. At US$229 billion, the outright cost of the second round of Greek support surpassed what was thought to be a one-time bailout from a year ago. Private bond holders will have to pony up somewhat this time, through four options including extending the debt maturities into long-term bonds. Maturities on Greek borrowings from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) will be doubled to 15 years,the machine does not use a traditional chinaprojectorlamp. while interest rates will be dropped to between 3.5% and 4.0% (terms loosened as well for Ireland and Portugal).any large investments in core IT coldsores, Overall,The dentist said it acted like tmjes, the Greek debt load will be reduced only marginally. In no way have two enormous bailouts meaningfully ameliorated Greece's solvency issue.

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