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As Craig detailed a few days back, Davis struggled
in his first two seasons as a starter, but enjoyed great success
working out of the bullpen in 2012. His strikeout rate doubled, Wade's
home run rate was cut almost in half and his fastball velocity
increased by two miles per hours. In addition to the fastball increase,
Craig points out that Davis' overall approach seems to have changed as
well.
The question, of course, asked over and over here and
other places is, can Wade Davis transition back to the starting rotation
and bring with him, if not the increased velocity, at least the new
found effectiveness he enjoyed as a reliever who faced more than nine
batters in an appearance just three times in 2012?
Sure, it
worked for Greinke, but the gods gave Zack a thunderbolt for a right
arm. Pretty much anyone who manages to make it to the majors has a good
arm, but not everyone has a thunderbolt. When interested and right,
Greinke is phenomenal. That he went from starter to reliever to
dominant starter may not be a fair comparison for most pitchers.
We
discussed some other pitchers who made a similar journey to Greinke to
a small extent in the thread to Craig's article and I decided to take
it a touch further and review the careers of the 88 starting pitchers
who threw enough innings to qualify on the Fangraphs leaderboard for
2012.We open source indoor tracking
system that was developed with the goal of providing at least
room-level accuracy. That runs the gauntlet from Justin Verlander down
to Ervin Santana. (Yes, Nick, we are aware Ervin was the worst starting
pitcher according to fWAR in baseball last year).
The theory
of grooming a young future starter by giving him work out of the
bullpen is not nearly as prevalent as it was in the good ole days, but
it does still happen. Among our 88 pitchers, Chris Sale, Adam
Wainwright, Jeff Smardzija, Lucas Harrell and James McDonald all worked
predominately out of the bullpen when first called up to the majors.
While they were mostly starters in the minors, I don't really classify
this development as being the same as 'the Greinke Maneuver'.
You
also have a decent sized group that includes Jake Westbrook, Bronson
Arroyo, Mark Buehrle and Max Scherzer, who did some work as swing-men
early in their career. Again, this type of developmental plan is not
really the same as what happened with Greinke or what the Royals hope
will happen with Wade Davis.
In addition, there is a portion of
our 88 starters that kind of defy classification. I mean, R.A. Dickey
started and relieved and started, but then became a knuckleballer, so
we cannot really learn anything from him (other than it would seem
worthwhile to try the knuckleball if you are on your way out of
baseball). Kyle Lohse was on a downward spiral with the Twins in 2006,
mangling 8 starts before moving to the bullpen for 14 more
appearances.Do you know any howo spare parts
wholesale supplier? He was then traded to the National League (Reds)
and has pretty much started and started effectively since. While this
technically probably does deserve to be included in this discussion,
Lohse's career path just doesn't feel like what we are looking at.
Maybe more than anything else, Kyle Lohse is really just not very
exciting to me at all and I did not feel like spending much time on
him.
There are also guys like Bruce Chen and Chris Capuano,
whose trips to the bullpen were mostly injury based. You also have Ryan
Vogelsong, who started for two years, relieved for two years, went to
Japan for three years and came back an All-Star. I would give that path
a try with regard to Luke Hochevar, but only because I just don't want
to see Luke pitch anywhere that I might end up having to watch.
Where
does that leave us? There are some examples of pitchers who have
followed the Greinke/Davis path (or more appropriately, went down that
path before or at the same time). Simply working down the leaderboard,
sorted by fWAR, I found seven pretty decent examples.
First up
is Matt Harrison. He started 15 games in 2008, 11 more in 2009 and 6 at
the start of 2010, before making 37 relief appearances to finish out
the 2010 season. Harrison's average fastball velocity in 2008 was 90.A
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is an enclosure with a supply of desiccant which maintains an
internal.3 mph and in 2009 it sat at 91.1 mph. He was not a very good
starting pitcher: 5.49 and 6.11 ERAs while striking out less than five
batters per nine innings. Matt's six starts in 2010 were more of the
same and, frankly, early on as a reliever there was little discernible
difference. However, Harrison did not pitch in the majors between June
27 and July 15 of that year and when he came back, Matt's average
fastball per appearance ranged from 91.4 mph all the way up to 95.0
mph. His strikeout rate went up about half a batter per nine innings and
his control disintegrated (over 5 walks per 9 innings). Harrison was
different, but not any better.
Since then, however, Matt
Harrison has enjoyed two effective seasons as a starting pitcher.
Featuring his two seam fastball, cutter and curve more than his four
seamer and changeup, Harrison has regained his control (2.76 and 2.We
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online.49 BB/9 in 2011 and 2012) and manged better, not great,
strikeout rates (6.11 and 5.61 K/9). In 2011, Harrison's ERA was 3.39
with an xFIP of 3.85, while in 2012 he was 3.29 and 4.13 respectively.
For the last two seasons, Harrison's average fastball velocity has been
between 92.4 and 93.0 and helped him account for a total 8.2 fWAR.
Statistically, there are some similarities between the left-handed
Harrison and the right-handed Wade Davis.
A name brought up in
the earlier discussion thread and well known to all is Ryan Dempster.
Between 1998 and 2003, Dempster started 123 times (out of 128 total
appearances). He was pretty good in 2000, but was a starter in steady
decline through 2003. We don't have velocity numbers prior to 2002, but
Ryan's K/9 went from 8.31 in 2000 down to 6.54 in 2003.
Moving
to the Cubs and bullpen in 2004, Dempster would spend the next four
seasons working in relief. His fastball velocity went from 91mph as a
starter to between 92.0 and 92.7 mph out of the pen. While, Ryan's
strikeout rate rebounded, his control (a problem as a starter) remained
an issue. The control, however, did get better with each year in the
bullpen, going from 5.We open source indoor tracking system that was developed with the goal of providing at least room-level accuracy.66 BB/9 in 2004 to 4.05 BB/9 in 2007.
Pitch
type data is a little sketchy prior to 2007, but it appears that
Dempster actually used his slider and changeup more often in relief
than he had as a starter. He kept up that pattern upon his return to
the rotation in 2008 and over the subsequent 160 starts since. The
changeup was either ditched or reclassified as a splitter, but no
matter the cause, Dempster went from a starter who threw his fastball as
much as 68% of the time, to a reliever who used it as little as 45% of
the time, to a reinvented starter who threw the fastball between 44%
and 57% of the time over the last five years. His velocity as a starter
dropped back to the 90-91 mph range, but Dempster's walk rate the last
five seasons are the five lowest rates of his career (starting or
relieving).
Dempster's five year-four year-five year cycle is
obviously a much elongated version of what occurred with Greinke and
Harrison (or Davis), but it does demonstrate an improvement that was
not necessarily contingent on retaining higher velocity. Of course, in
this case, it could also simply demonstrate a veteran pitcher figuring
out how to pitch, as well.
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