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As Craig detailed a few days back, Davis struggled
 in his first two  seasons as a starter, but enjoyed great success 
working out of the bullpen in  2012. His strikeout rate doubled, Wade's 
home run rate was cut almost in half  and his fastball velocity 
increased by two miles per hours. In addition to the  fastball increase,
 Craig points out that Davis' overall approach seems to have  changed as
 well. 
The question, of course, asked over and over here and  
other places is, can Wade Davis transition back to the starting rotation
 and  bring with him, if not the increased velocity, at least the new 
found  effectiveness he enjoyed as a reliever who faced more than nine 
batters in an  appearance just three times in 2012? 
Sure, it 
worked for Greinke, but  the gods gave Zack a thunderbolt for a right 
arm. Pretty much anyone who manages  to make it to the majors has a good
 arm, but not everyone has a thunderbolt.  When interested and right, 
Greinke is phenomenal. That he went from starter to  reliever to 
dominant starter may not be a fair comparison for most pitchers.  
We
 discussed some other pitchers who made a similar journey to Greinke  to
 a small extent in the thread to Craig's article and I decided to take 
it a  touch further and review the careers of the 88 starting pitchers 
who threw  enough innings to qualify on the Fangraphs leaderboard for 
2012.We open source  indoor tracking
 system that was  developed with the goal of providing at least 
room-level accuracy. That runs the  gauntlet from Justin Verlander down 
to Ervin Santana. (Yes, Nick, we are aware  Ervin was the worst starting
 pitcher according to fWAR in baseball last year).  
The theory 
of grooming a young future starter by giving him work out of  the 
bullpen is not nearly as prevalent as it was in the good ole days, but 
it  does still happen. Among our 88 pitchers, Chris Sale, Adam 
Wainwright, Jeff  Smardzija, Lucas Harrell and James McDonald all worked
 predominately out of the  bullpen when first called up to the majors. 
While they were mostly starters in  the minors, I don't really classify 
this development as being the same as 'the  Greinke Maneuver'. 
You
 also have a decent sized group that includes Jake  Westbrook, Bronson 
Arroyo, Mark Buehrle and Max Scherzer, who did some work as  swing-men 
early in their career. Again, this type of developmental plan is not  
really the same as what happened with Greinke or what the Royals hope 
will  happen with Wade Davis. 
In addition, there is a portion of
 our 88  starters that kind of defy classification. I mean, R.A. Dickey 
started and  relieved and started, but then became a knuckleballer, so 
we cannot really learn  anything from him (other than it would seem 
worthwhile to try the knuckleball if  you are on your way out of 
baseball). Kyle Lohse was on a downward spiral with  the Twins in 2006, 
mangling 8 starts before moving to the bullpen for 14 more  
appearances.Do you know any howo  spare parts
 wholesale supplier? He was then traded to the National League  (Reds) 
and has pretty much started and started effectively since. While this  
technically probably does deserve to be included in this discussion, 
Lohse's  career path just doesn't feel like what we are looking at. 
Maybe more than  anything else, Kyle Lohse is really just not very 
exciting to me at all and I  did not feel like spending much time on 
him. 
There are also guys like  Bruce Chen and Chris Capuano, 
whose trips to the bullpen were mostly injury  based. You also have Ryan
 Vogelsong, who started for two years, relieved for two  years, went to 
Japan for three years and came back an All-Star. I would give  that path
 a try with regard to Luke Hochevar, but only because I just don't want 
 to see Luke pitch anywhere that I might end up having to watch. 
Where
  does that leave us? There are some examples of pitchers who have 
followed the  Greinke/Davis path (or more appropriately, went down that 
path before or at the  same time). Simply working down the leaderboard, 
sorted by fWAR, I found seven  pretty decent examples. 
First up 
is Matt Harrison. He started 15 games  in 2008, 11 more in 2009 and 6 at
 the start of 2010, before making 37 relief  appearances to finish out 
the 2010 season. Harrison's average fastball velocity  in 2008 was 90.A 
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internal.3 mph and in 2009 it sat at 91.1 mph. He was not a very good 
starting  pitcher: 5.49 and 6.11 ERAs while striking out less than five 
batters per nine  innings. Matt's six starts in 2010 were more of the 
same and, frankly, early on  as a reliever there was little discernible 
difference. However, Harrison did not  pitch in the majors between June 
27 and July 15 of that year and when he came  back, Matt's average 
fastball per appearance ranged from 91.4 mph all the way up  to 95.0 
mph. His strikeout rate went up about half a batter per nine innings and
  his control disintegrated (over 5 walks per 9 innings). Harrison was 
different,  but not any better. 
Since then, however, Matt 
Harrison has enjoyed two  effective seasons as a starting pitcher. 
Featuring his two seam fastball, cutter  and curve more than his four 
seamer and changeup, Harrison has regained his  control (2.76 and 2.We 
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 online.49  BB/9 in 2011 and 2012) and manged better, not great, 
strikeout rates (6.11 and  5.61 K/9). In 2011, Harrison's ERA was 3.39 
with an xFIP of 3.85, while in 2012  he was 3.29 and 4.13 respectively. 
For the last two seasons, Harrison's average  fastball velocity has been
 between 92.4 and 93.0 and helped him account for a  total 8.2 fWAR. 
Statistically, there are some similarities between the  left-handed 
Harrison and the right-handed Wade Davis. 
A name brought up  in 
the earlier discussion thread and well known to all is Ryan Dempster. 
Between  1998 and 2003, Dempster started 123 times (out of 128 total 
appearances). He was  pretty good in 2000, but was a starter in steady 
decline through 2003. We don't  have velocity numbers prior to 2002, but
 Ryan's K/9 went from 8.31 in 2000 down  to 6.54 in 2003. 
Moving
 to the Cubs and bullpen in 2004, Dempster would  spend the next four 
seasons working in relief. His fastball velocity went from  91mph as a 
starter to between 92.0 and 92.7 mph out of the pen. While, Ryan's  
strikeout rate rebounded, his control (a problem as a starter) remained 
an  issue. The control, however, did get better with each year in the 
bullpen, going  from 5.We open source indoor tracking system that was developed with the goal of providing at least room-level  accuracy.66 BB/9 in 2004 to 4.05 BB/9 in 2007. 
Pitch
 type data is a  little sketchy prior to 2007, but it appears that 
Dempster actually used his  slider and changeup more often in relief 
than he had as a starter. He kept up  that pattern upon his return to 
the rotation in 2008 and over the subsequent 160  starts since. The 
changeup was either ditched or reclassified as a splitter, but  no 
matter the cause, Dempster went from a starter who threw his fastball as
 much  as 68% of the time, to a reliever who used it as little as 45% of
 the time, to a  reinvented starter who threw the fastball between 44% 
and 57% of the time over  the last five years. His velocity as a starter
 dropped back to the 90-91 mph  range, but Dempster's walk rate the last
 five seasons are the five lowest rates  of his career (starting or 
relieving). 
Dempster's five year-four  year-five year cycle is 
obviously a much elongated version of what occurred with  Greinke and 
Harrison (or Davis), but it does demonstrate an improvement that was  
not necessarily contingent on retaining higher velocity. Of course, in 
this  case, it could also simply demonstrate a veteran pitcher figuring 
out how to  pitch, as well.
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